Malaysia OPR Prediction: 3% Rate to Continue Through 2025

KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is projected to remain steady at 3.00% throughout 2025, according to Public Investment Bank Bhd (PIVB). The investment bank highlighted that its forecast aligns with stable economic growth expectations and moderate inflation.

PIVB anticipates Malaysia’s GDP to grow at 4.9% in 2025, with inflation at 2.4%—a slight moderation from the previous year’s figures of 5.1% and 1.8% respectively.

CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd also echoed this sentiment in its Treasury and Markets Research note, predicting that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) will maintain the OPR at 3.00% throughout the year. The firm cited ongoing global uncertainties and mixed supply-side impacts on inflation and economic growth as key reasons behind the central bank's cautious, data-driven approach.

CIMB noted that Malaysia’s positive output gap—0.5% in 2025 versus 0.4% in 2024—signals sustained domestic demand, suggesting that monetary policy decisions will likely respond to unfolding data rather than act preemptively.

In its latest Economic Update, PIVB stated that with economic activity largely in line with BNM’s projections and lingering downside risks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain a conservative stance.

"A wait-and-see strategy remains probable, as BNM continues to evaluate global trade dynamics and the impact of tariff adjustments," said the bank.

Unless there are major shifts in Malaysia’s growth or inflation outlook, no further rate hikes or cuts are anticipated. PIVB added that particular attention will be given to the potential economic effects of U.S. countervailing duties and global semiconductor trade policies, which could influence Malaysia’s export sector and broader monetary strategy.